Canada’s headline inflation rate cooled again in August, even a bit more than expected. The consumer price index rose 7.0% from a year ago, down from 7.6% in July and a forty-year high of 8.1% in June, mainly on the back of lower gasoline prices.

The CPI fell 0.3% in August, the most significant monthly decline since the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI was up 0.1%, the smallest gain since December 2020. The monthly gas price decline in August compared with July mainly stemmed from higher global production by oil-producing countries. According to data from Natural Resources Canada, refining margins also fell from higher levels in July. Transportation (+10.3%) and shelter (+6.6%) prices drove the deceleration in consumer prices in August. Moderating the slowing in prices were sustained higher prices for groceries, as prices for food purchased from stores (+10.8%) rose at the fastest pace since August 1981 (+11.9%).

Price growth for goods and services both slowed on a year-over-year basis in August. As non-durable goods (+10.8%) decelerated due to lower prices at the pump, services associated with travel and shelter services contributed the most to the slowdown in service prices (+5.5%). Prices for durable goods (+6.0%), such as passenger vehicles and appliances, also cooled in August.

In August, the average hourly wages rose 5.4% on a year-over-year basis, meaning that, on average, prices rose faster than wages. Although Canadians experienced a decline in purchasing power, the gap was smaller than in July.

Core inflation–which excludes food and energy prices–also decelerated but remains far too high for the Bank of Canada’s comfort.  The central bank analyzes three measures of core inflation (see the chart below). The average of the central bank’s three key measures dropped to 5.23% from a revised 5.43% in July, a record high. The Bank aims to return these measures to their 2% target.

Bottom Line

Price pressures might have peaked, but today’s data release will not derail the central bank’s intention to raise rates further. Markets expect another rate hike in late October when the Governing Council of the Bank of Canada meets again. But further moves are likely to be smaller than the 75 bps-hikes of the past summer.

There is still more than a month of data before the October 25th decision date. The September employment report (released on October 7) and the September CPI (October 19) will be critical to the Bank’s decision. Right now, we expect a 50-bps hike next month.

Advice for Single Homebuyers

Buying a home is an exciting experience for anyone, and even more of a milestone when you’re doing it solo, but it can be a little different when you’re purchasing on your own. While it can be easier to tailor your mortgage and home search to exactly your needs, it can be somewhat more stressful handling the purchase of a home on your own… fortunately, that’s where a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage expert can help! They assist with your mortgage application, pre-approvals and final financing to make the entire mortgage process much smoother.

In addition to using a mortgage expert and having a trusted realtor, here are some other tips that can help improve your homebuying experience:

1. Be Aware of Your Financial History

Understanding your credit score and your financial history can help to improve your qualification potential. If your credit score is a little lower than it should be, or lower than you’d like for what you are trying to qualify for, you can take steps to improve this prior to seeking a mortgage and get better results.

2. Ramp Up Your Savings

Of course, while a mortgage will cover a large chunk of your home purchase, you are also required to have a down payment. In addition, you need to consider closing costs (1.5-4%) of the purchase price, as well as ongoing maintenance and costs for your new home (repairs, utilities, property taxes). It is important to determine your budget so you are aware of what you can afford monthly.  BUT before you shop is also a great time to start ramping up your savings account so you can put more down and potentially reduce the overall mortgage.

3. Study The Marketplace

One of the most important aspects of homeownership is understanding what you can afford and where you want to live. These two key components can help you to determine your budget and the areas that you should be looking for a home, as well as what type of home size, amenities, etc. Understanding what is available can provide you with more information and help you fine-tune your shopping list.

4. Be Flexible When Possible and Firm When Not

While shopping for a home on your own can be much easier as you’re only concerned about your own needs, it is still important to be flexible. While it is easier to find a home that fits just ‘you’, keeping your options open can also have its benefits. Of course, if there are things you cannot live without or a location you really need to be in, it’s important to be firm about those things as well. Creating a list of wants and needs can help you determine where there is room to be flexible, and where there isn’t.

5. Consider Your Present and Future Needs

While you’re shopping for your new home for you today, you will also want to consider what your life might look like in the future. What are you doing 5 years from now? 10 years? Do you want to start a family or have children? Do you plan on changing jobs or perhaps requiring a move in a few years? All these things are important to be aware of so you can make the best choice for you today, but also ensure that you are considering your future needs.

6. Protect Yourself

Lastly, while you might not be purchasing your current home with a partner, it is important to leave room for this in the future to ensure that you and your home are protected. If you have another individual move into your home down the line, you could become common-law and that could cause complications. Having an honest conversation about expectations and responsibilities can help, as well as writing up a document for both parties to sign, indicating these responsibilities as well as outlining the investment made by the original owner and new partner.

Written by the DLC Marketing Team